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Mathijs Geerlings

The Atlantic Straitjacket: How the US Containment of Eurasia Broke Europe

The Atlantic Straitjacket: How the US Containment of Eurasia Broke Europe

Abstract: This paper contends that Trump’s second presidency has broken Europe’s "Stockholm Syndrome," exposing a reality of covert subjugation rather than partnership. We trace how US grand strategy—culminating in the destruction of Nord Stream—systematically severed Europe’s Eurasian integration to enforce vassalage. By analyzing

Forces of Western Europe: A Qualitative Analysis

Forces of Western Europe: A Qualitative Analysis

Introduction: The Strategic Imperative of the Fractured Era The security architecture of Western Europe has entered a period of profound structural destabilization, characterized not merely by the re-emergence of high-intensity conflict on its periphery but by the internal decomposition of the post-Cold War security guarantee. This Net Assessment, commissioned to

Venezuela: A Disaster In The Making

Venezuela: A Disaster In The Making

Abstract: A U.S. "Hybrid Hammer & Scalpel" operation against Venezuela represents a high-risk gamble on a Strategy of Destruction aimed at regime decapitation. This strategy is fundamentally mismatched against Venezuela's Strategy of Attrition, which is designed not to defeat the U.S. military conventionally but

Venezuela: A Force Posture Analysis

Venezuela: A Force Posture Analysis

Abstract: This analysis, using the Correlation of Forces and Means (COFM) methodology, finds Venezuela poses a coercive, not an invasion, threat to the Dutch ABC islands. Its amphibious capability is severely degraded, contrasting sharply with its formidable standoff strike and A2/AD missile systems. A direct invasion is therefore a

Forces of Western Europe: A Quantitative Analysis

Forces of Western Europe: A Quantitative Analysis

Abstract: A quantitative analysis of the military balance of power among five principal Western European nations—the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium—as of 2025. The assessment is conducted using the Correlation of Forces and Means (COFM) methodology. The strategic context for this analysis is a hypothetical

How Yemen defeated the United States Navy

How Yemen defeated the United States Navy

This article will dissect how Yemen’s Houthi movement outmaneuvered the U.S. Navy, transforming a lopsided military imbalance into a strategic victory. From the dynamics of missile warfare to the political costs of endless engagement, the conflict in Yemen offers a case study in how determined irregular forces can

Iran: The Empire's Final Trap

Iran: The Empire's Final Trap

This article argues that while China is the primary challenger to U.S. hegemony, a conflict with Iran—sparked by Israeli escalation or miscalculation—could fatally weaken the American-led world order. Drawing on the Thucydides Trap and Mearsheimer’s theory of power, it demonstrates how U.S. demographic decline, deindustrialization,