Sign in Subscribe

Mathijs Geerlings

Venezuela: A Disaster In The Making

Venezuela: A Disaster In The Making

Abstract: A U.S. "Hybrid Hammer & Scalpel" operation against Venezuela represents a high-risk gamble on a Strategy of Destruction aimed at regime decapitation. This strategy is fundamentally mismatched against Venezuela's Strategy of Attrition, which is designed not to defeat the U.S. military conventionally but

Venezuela: A Force Posture Analysis

Venezuela: A Force Posture Analysis

Abstract: This analysis, using the Correlation of Forces and Means (COFM) methodology, finds Venezuela poses a coercive, not an invasion, threat to the Dutch ABC islands. Its amphibious capability is severely degraded, contrasting sharply with its formidable standoff strike and A2/AD missile systems. A direct invasion is therefore a

Forces of Western Europe: A Quantitative Analysis

Forces of Western Europe: A Quantitative Analysis

Abstract: A quantitative analysis of the military balance of power among five principal Western European nations—the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium—as of 2025. The assessment is conducted using the Correlation of Forces and Means (COFM) methodology. The strategic context for this analysis is a hypothetical

How Yemen defeated the United States Navy

How Yemen defeated the United States Navy

This article will dissect how Yemen’s Houthi movement outmaneuvered the U.S. Navy, transforming a lopsided military imbalance into a strategic victory. From the dynamics of missile warfare to the political costs of endless engagement, the conflict in Yemen offers a case study in how determined irregular forces can

Iran: The Empire's Final Trap

Iran: The Empire's Final Trap

This article argues that while China is the primary challenger to U.S. hegemony, a conflict with Iran—sparked by Israeli escalation or miscalculation—could fatally weaken the American-led world order. Drawing on the Thucydides Trap and Mearsheimer’s theory of power, it demonstrates how U.S. demographic decline, deindustrialization,

AI-Powered War Gaming: A Case Study on Saudi-Eritrean Red Sea Conflict Simulation

AI-Powered War Gaming: A Case Study on Saudi-Eritrean Red Sea Conflict Simulation

Abstract This article presents a methodological exploration of how generative artificial intelligence (AI) can augment traditional strategic analysis by rapidly constructing a plausible conflict scenario between Saudi Arabia and Eritrea. Through a structured five-phase process—scenario generation, order-of-battle (ORBAT) compilation, turn-based simulation, battle damage assessment, and lessons learned—this study

A European Security Architecture Without American Umbrella

A European Security Architecture Without American Umbrella

The European security architecture is facing a potential rebirth. Let's consider a scenario where the United States significantly reduces its role within NATO over the next ten years – for example, by strategically focusing on Asia or adopting isolationist policies. In this case, Europe must reassess its own security.