Predicting Outcomes of a Contested Hormuz Transit Using Stochastic COFM Simulation
Abstract: To quantify the probability of a successful People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) escort mission through a heavily contested Strait of Hormuz, opposed by a dual-layered blockade enforced by United States Naval Central Command (NAVCENT), a stochastic Correlation of Forces and Means model is applied. The model integrates
